Machinery industry: Compressor market is better than expected

Construction Machinery: The digging machine sales were lower than expected in January. According to the excavator sales data announced by the Construction Machinery Association, excavator sales in January were 5,221 units, a year-on-year rate of -52% and -39%. The growth rate fell again, and the sales volume was lower than the forecast of the agency survey conducted in early January. It was basically consistent with the survey data of agents at the end of January.

The reasons for the lower-than-expected demand for the Spring Festival have also not recovered effectively. The reason for the lower than expected sales of excavators in January was due to factors other than the Spring Festival. The slow progress of the project and the new start-up process and the lack of effective funding easing are also important reasons. It is expected that the sales volume will rebound sharply in February, narrowing the year-on-year decline. Judging from the forecast analysis of the excavator market in 2012 by agents and manufacturers, the judgment of the entire market is an increase of 5-10%. However, the expectations of their own companies are still much higher than this growth rate, so after February and the peak season, the marketing activities of major manufacturers and agents have come one after another. Participate in an agent activity on the weekend, the agent harvests about 90-100 orders on the spot, orders can basically be converted into sales in February, this number is equivalent to 2-3 times in January, the rate of recovery is still very fast .

Aerospace: Continue to recommend Beidou navigation chain. With the completion of the basic construction of regional space-based systems, demonstration projects and the promotion of application have been significantly accelerated. Late-stage defense and industry user pilot projects (small-scale orders and pre-research support) are the focus. Before entering a large number of purchases, we expect that in 2012, defense and industrial users will adopt smaller orders and pre-research expenses to support the development of Beidou navigation products, laying the foundation for large-scale applications after 2013. It is advisable to pay attention to the companies that implement the supply and demand docking during the pilot phase and recommend leading companies in satellite applications: China Satellite, Beidou Xingtong, and Guoteng Electronics.

General Machinery: The demand for air compressors from Europe, the United States, and Asia Pacific is improving, and the domestic screw air compressor market is better than expected. Judging from the 4 quarters of 2011 situation of Atlas and Garton Denver and the expectation of the 1st quarter of 2012, the demand for air compressors in Europe, the United States and the Asia-Pacific region is in good demand. From the recent survey of domestic first-line screw air compressor brand dealers and core parts companies, we expect that the industry's production and sales volume in 1Q will be flat year-on-year, and the leading company's production and sales volume may have positive growth, which is better than investors. Negative growth expectations.

Shipbuilding: The worst start of the shipping market in five years. Global orders received in January 2012 totaled 1.99 million DWT, down 71.1% year-on-year, and down 36.5% from the previous quarter. This is the first time that the number of new orders received in a single month has fallen below 2 million DWT for the past two years, and it is also the worst starting date for the global shipping market in five years. In January, 426,000 DWT and container ships did not receive new orders for the first time in 20 months. The two types of ships both dropped by 92% and 100% year-on-year.

All kinds of data indicate that this year's shipping market will continue its downward trend in 2011. We believe that 2012 will continue the downturn in 2011 and the annual orders will not exceed 60 million DWT.