When Will Fossil Fuels Run Out?

In today's world, where environmental sustainability is at the forefront of global discussions, we're more informed than ever about the impact of human activities on our planet. Week after week, news articles and scientific reports highlight the urgent need for cleaner energy solutions. The same holds true for fossil fuels—despite knowing their harmful effects, they remain a dominant source of energy for households and industries worldwide.

One thing we can agree on is that fossil fuels are finite resources. At some point, they will be completely exhausted. But when exactly? Is it decades away or far beyond our lifetimes? To answer this critical question, we delved into research and data to uncover the most reliable insights available.

The Challenge of Rising Demand

To begin with, let's take a quick look at the current energy landscape. As advocates of renewable energy, we firmly believe that transitioning away from fossil fuels is essential for the future of our environment. However, it's important to recognize that our reliance on these non-renewable resources persists due to practical considerations. Right now, the world is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, and global demand shows no signs of slowing down.

Last year alone, the Energy and CO2 Status Report revealed a 2.1% increase in worldwide energy demand, nearly double the growth rate reported in 2016! This growing appetite is primarily fueled by oil, coal, and natural gas, which together accounted for over 70% of the increase in global energy demand in recent years. Fortunately, renewable energy is catching up. According to the same report, renewables experienced the highest growth rate among all energy sources, led by major players like China and the U.S.

When Will Fossil Fuels Be Depleted?

Now that we understand the context, let’s explore the timeline for fossil fuel exhaustion. Predicting this is complex, as these resources have been present for millions of years but have only been intensively exploited for about two centuries. During this time, humanity has consumed vast quantities of fossil fuels at an alarming pace, and the trend shows no sign of reversing.

Based on current consumption rates, experts estimate that all fossil fuels could be depleted by 2060. While discovering new reserves might delay this timeline, we hope this doesn’t occur, as it would perpetuate environmental degradation. Keep in mind that each fossil fuel has its own depletion schedule, so we’ll examine them individually below.

Oil: Running Out Soon?

Oil stands out as a particularly pressing concern. Known oil reserves are projected to last until 2052, but realistically, we may never truly "run out" of oil. With the Earth’s vast depths, new deposits will likely continue to be discovered. However, extracting oil from increasingly inaccessible locations will become prohibitively expensive, driving up prices. Historically, oil prices have always risen alongside extraction challenges, prompting a shift toward alternative energy sources.

As labor costs soar and supply dwindles, homeowners and businesses will increasingly turn to renewables, which offer long-term cost savings. Recent trends support this prediction. The Oil Market Report, commissioned by the International Energy Agency, noted a slowdown in demand during the last quarter after a sharp spike in 2016-2017. A新一轮 surge is expected, potentially surpassing previous highs.

Moreover, the transportation sector, which relies entirely on oil, consumes this resource at an unprecedented rate. This sector alone drives much of the global demand for fossil fuels.

Coal: A Longer Lifespan

According to the World Coal Association, the world has approximately 1.1 trillion tonnes of coal reserves, enough to last around 150 years at current consumption rates. By 2168, coal could be fully depleted unless new deposits are found. The rate of demand plays a crucial role here. Last year, global coal demand surged significantly, with construction and industrial activities accounting for 80% of the increase. China alone contributed one-third of this growth in 2017.

Despite its abundance, coal remains the dirtiest fossil fuel, responsible for many of the world’s worst environmental issues, as highlighted by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). Fortunately, progress is being made. Just last year, the UK went three consecutive days without coal power—the first time since the 19th century.

Natural Gas: A Shorter Horizon

BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 indicates that we have 193.5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas remaining, enough to last between 90 and 120 years. This figure fluctuates depending on annual consumption, which has steadily increased from 3 trillion cubic meters to over 3.5 trillion.

Why Solar Power is the Future

While the depletion of fossil fuels may not affect us directly, it poses a significant challenge for future generations. To safeguard the planet and ensure a sustainable future, transitioning to renewable energy is imperative. Solar power, in particular, offers immense potential. Its costs are declining rapidly, making it an increasingly attractive alternative to traditional energy sources.

If you're looking to make a positive impact on the environment and reduce your energy bills, switching to solar is a smart choice. Contact us at 0800 112 3110 to discuss your options or fill out our brief inquiry form. Together, we can build a cleaner, greener tomorrow.