“The market for titanium dioxide in the first half of the year has shown the trend of the most prosperous in the past 20 years, but if more than 20 projects that have been announced can be completed and put into production by 2015, the total annual production capacity of titanium dioxide in China will increase sharply to 4.15 million. Even if the operating rate of sulfuric acid is between 60% and 70% and the operating rate of chlorination is between 75% and 80%, the annual production of titanium dioxide will reach 2.5 million to 3 million tons, plus the dependence on raw material imports. As prices continue to climb, the industry will face huge market risks,†said Bi Sheng, the director of the Titanium Dioxide Center of the National Productivity Promotion Center of the Chemical Industry and the Secretary of the Technical Innovation Strategic Alliance of the Titanium Dioxide Industry.
“In 2011, the output of the whole industry will record another record, reaching 1.6 million to 1.8 million tons, of which rutile products will reach more than 1 million tons. The rapid increase in production capacity will increase the operational risks of the industry. Due to the overheated economy in some regions, the The electricity phenomenon, coupled with various policies adopted by the state to regulate and control GDP, the market demand for titanium dioxide has shrunk significantly, and some companies have taken the initiative to adjust production and appropriately reduce production, and the operating rate of the entire industry is estimated to be only 60% to 70%. "Bi Sheng said.
The market for titanium dioxide in the first half of 2011 was very promising, which greatly stimulated the investment enthusiasm of companies. Anatase products have rapidly increased from RMB 9,500 to RMB 10,500 (t price, the same below) to 18,500 to 20,000 yuan last year, and the price has doubled; rutile products have increased from RMB 13,000 to RMB 14,000 last year to RMB 23,000 to RMB 24,000 at the highest. The increase reached 10,000 yuan. In the second quarter, when the titanium dioxide industry was most prosperous, gross profit could reach 7,000-9,000 yuan, and the profit level reached a record high.
In fact, this prosperity is largely due to the unprecedented price increase of raw titanium ore. In early 2011, the price of titanium ore was 1,000 yuan. Since then, it has continued to rise, rising to 3,300 to 3,500 yuan. At the beginning of the year, titanium slag was 3,300 to 3,500 yuan. It rose continuously until it broke through 8,000 yuan. “The price of titanium ore raw materials, especially domestic materials, is skyrocketing. The fundamental factor is market speculation. This kind of human factors is a harm to the titanium dioxide industry.†Bi Sheng analyzed.
With the increase of production capacity, the dependence on the import of titanium ore raw materials consumed by China's titanium dioxide industry is getting higher and higher. Although compared with 3-4 years ago, the import channels of titanium ore are diversified, and Australia, Vietnam and India have become the major sources of imports. However, Vietnam will adopt a titanium ore export restriction policy in 2012, which will have a greater impact on China’s titanium ore imports. While contending for big projects across the country, the issue of raw material risks became prominent.
In the past 10 years, China’s imports of titanium dioxide have been larger than exports, except for the year-on-year decline in exports caused by the financial crisis in 2008. The annual export volume has remained stable or slightly increased. In 2011, on the basis of maintaining a basically stable import volume, exports have been increasing, and China has become a net exporter of titanium dioxide for the first time. From January to August, the cumulative import of titanium dioxide in China was 174,000 tons, down 2.6% year-on-year; the cumulative export volume was 279,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 83.6%.
Bi Sheng believes that according to the recent domestic and international economic development, if the country does not issue new relevant policies and measures, the industry will continue to operate downward from the second half of 2011 to the beginning of 2012. If a new import and export policy is introduced, it is likely to be an export taxation policy, which will have an incalculable impact on the entire market. Because ordinary titanium dioxide belongs to the category of "two high and one capital", it does not belong to the state to encourage export.
According to statistics from the National Titanium Divider Center for the Productivity Promotion Center of the Chemical Industry, the actual production capacity of the titanium dioxide industry in China has reached 2.43 million tons in 2010, compared with the previous forecast of 2.3 million tons. Since 2010, more than 20 expansion or new installations have been publicly announced in the industry, involving a total production capacity of 1.72 million tons/year, and their planned completion time is before 2015. In addition, there are a number of titanium dioxide planning projects, including the proposed chlorination project in Xinan County, Luoli County, Henan Province, and other enterprises, and the newly approved Sichuan Longyuan investment of 600,000 tons/year in Shenyang, Hubei Province. Titanium dioxide engineering and so on. According to Bi Sheng, in more than 20 sulphuric acid projects, it can only be scaled up compared to the current installations, and there is no essential difference between products. He reminded the majority of companies that they must fully consider various potential risks when they are on the project.
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