For a long time, China has implemented many "limited small" policies. The policy-oriented significance of the 6 billion yuan subsidy will be greater than the role of boosting consumption.
A few days ago, the State Council executive meeting decided that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, 6 billion yuan will be allocated to support the promotion of energy-saving vehicles with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less. Chongqing Municipality has started the subsidy policy for small-displacement vehicles. The city’s rural population purchases mini-cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters and below produced in the administrative jurisdiction, and light and micro-trucks with a load of not more than 6 tons. The subsidy is 6% of the price, and the maximum is no more than 3,000 yuan.
Since the halving of automobile purchase tax last year, the car going to the countryside, and the old-for-new policy, the market share of small-displacement vehicles has been falling. The new bailout policy can be described as a “long-term drought†for the small-displacement car market in distress. Some people have questioned whether, in the current situation, is it necessary to save the market or guide structural adjustment?
In the first five months, sales of small-displacement vehicles fell by 0.7 percentage points, and low- and middle-income people were more sensitive to vehicle costs.
According to the latest statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to May, sales of cars of 1.6 liters and below were 3.0824 million, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, the first positive growth since this year. At the same time, the proportion of cars with 1.6 liters and below accounted for 70.5% of the total number of cars, down 0.7 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. As domestic independent brands are mainly concentrated in the field of small-displacement vehicles, the large fluctuations in the small-displacement automobile market will inevitably drag down the development of independent brands. In the first five months of this year, the self-owned brands of passenger cars sold a total of 2.652 million units, down 2.10% year-on-year, accounting for 41.90% of the total sales of passenger cars, and the share fell by 3.25 percentage points year-on-year.
The small displacement car market has always been the most sensitive market for policy and price changes. In 2011, after the relevant preferential policies such as purchase tax reduction and exemption were withdrawn, the sales of passenger cars of 1.6 liters and below were 9,845,200 units, a year-on-year increase of only 4.06%, a decrease of 27.04 percentage points from the previous year. It is worth noting that the impact on the small-displacement models has been obvious since the increase in the subsidy standard for energy-saving vehicles began in October last year. In the previous nine months, the monthly sales of passenger cars of 1.6 liters and below were higher than the total sales growth of passenger cars in the same period. From October, the sales volume has been lower than the same period of the previous year for three consecutive months.
Dong Yang, executive vice president of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that due to the cancellation of preferential policies, the product structure has undergone a reverse adjustment. This year's sales of 1.6 liters and below have not been optimistic.
In this regard, Lang Xuehong, deputy general manager of EF International Information Consulting (Beijing) Co., Ltd. believes that the main consumers of the small-displacement vehicle market are low- and middle-income people, who are responsible for inflationary pressures, rising oil prices and parking fees. The improvement is more sensitive. Under the background of the slowdown in economic growth this year and the cancellation of preferential policies, low- and middle-income people are likely to be in a wait-and-see state of holding money. "In addition, China's auto market has experienced significant changes in consumption in the past two years. More than half of the new auto consumer groups are second-time car buyers. Most of these people will focus on the mid- to high-end auto market." Lang Xuehong said.
The “limited small†policy has made the domestic small-displacement vehicle technology have a big gap with foreign countries, and the low profit of bicycles also makes the auto companies reluctant to invest.
The 6 billion yuan energy-saving car subsidy fund provides financial support for the new energy-saving car subsidy policy. From now on, the 6 billion yuan subsidy budget will be spent in the next two and a half years. If you continue to calculate the subsidy amount of 3,000 yuan per energy-saving model, 6 billion yuan will only be enough to subsidize 2 million energy-saving models. The industry generally believes that the guiding significance of the 6 billion yuan subsidy policy is greater than the role of boosting consumption.
For a long time, China has implemented many “limited small†policies, and domestic small-displacement vehicles have a large gap compared with Europe and Japan. In addition, the profit of bicycles for small-displacement vehicles is too low, and it is difficult to increase production and increase profits. Automobile manufacturers are reluctant to invest too much money to develop high-quality small-displacement vehicles. Taking the threshold of China's energy-saving car subsidy increase on October 1 last year, the number of vehicles meeting the subsidy standard has dropped from 433 to 49, and 90% of the models have been eliminated. This also means that enterprises need to accelerate their energy-saving technology innovation. In addition, the psychological needs of the Chinese people who have been "big" for a long time are still in the mainstream, and small-displacement vehicles have long been "not to be seen."
The sales volume of small displacement vehicles is also deeply affected by the policy. Since January 2006, China has begun to implement the "Opinions on Encouraging the Development of Energy-Saving and Environmentally-Friendly Small-Displacement Vehicles", and canceled 84 cities such as Beijing and Guangzhou to restrict small-displacement vehicles. Since 2009, the government has introduced a package of tax incentives for passenger cars of 1.6 liters and below, as well as subsidies for car going to the countryside and subsidies for energy-saving vehicles. Under the stimulation of multiple preferential policies, China’s small-displacement vehicles have finally ushered in a rare spring. . According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2009, the sales of passenger cars of 1.6 liters and below were nearly 7.2 million, an increase of more than 70% year-on-year, and the proportion of passenger cars increased by 8 percentage points over 2008. Since 2010, the preferential tax rate for purchases has decreased, and the growth rate of small-displacement vehicles has also slowed down, but it still remains at a high level.
High oil prices and deteriorating environment, it is imperative to develop small-displacement vehicles, and more support policies should be introduced.
From the experience and current situation of developed countries such as Europe and Japan, small cars with low fuel consumption and small displacement have become the mainstream of social consumption. In Europe, small displacement vehicles with displacements below 1.0 liter account for about 35% of total vehicle sales. In Japan, the market share of small displacement vehicles below 0.6 liters is as high as 60%.
Although China's automobile industry has developed rapidly in recent years, the drawbacks of the automobile industry's unreasonable structure have gradually become prominent. Under the premise of high oil prices and increasingly prominent environmental issues, the popularity of new energy vehicles will take time, and it is imperative to develop small-displacement and low-fuel consumption vehicles. "The government should not introduce a policy to stimulate automobile consumption, but should introduce policies that encourage independent development and support the development of small-displacement vehicles as soon as possible," Dong Yang said.
Encouraging the purchase of small displacement vehicles should be a long-term policy. A senior auto analyst believes that the government must first formulate a unified standard for small-displacement vehicles, and encourage enterprises to increase investment in technology research and development for small-displacement vehicles. Secondly, in the sales and use of the link to reduce the tax on small-displacement vehicles and other means, such as consumption tax, bridge tolls, parking fees, vehicle inspection fees and other aspects of small emission vehicles to implement the reduction policy. In addition, government bus purchases should also be tilted toward small displacement vehicles.
Xu Changming, director of the Information Resource Development Department of the National Information Center, believes that the government does not need to comprehensively launch the consumption stimulus policy similar to the “Automotive Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan†promulgated in 2009, but should appropriately introduce some structural incentive policies to support the development of small-displacement vehicles. .
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