According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the overall passenger vehicle market grew by 2% in the previous July. The independent brands were relatively optimistic. The overall sales volume increased by 4.67% year-on-year, and the market share reached 43.45%. In the same period of last year, it increased by 1.13 percentage points. However, optimism also breeds alert reminders. In July, the sales of self-owned brand passenger vehicles totaled 679,200 units, a decrease of 10.20% from the previous month. The market share decreased by 0.82 percentage points from the previous month to 40.47%.
Peng Bo, global partner of PricewaterhouseCoopers and vice president of Greater China, previously wrote an article on the sales of the auto market in the first half of the year, stating that "the knockout of the auto market has begun."
Judging from the competition status of several major automobile groups, the six major automobile groups have not changed their rankings for many years, and they have changed in the first half of this year. According to statistics from the automotive data consulting company Wilson, the sixth-ranked Guangzhou Automobile Group The semi-annual ranking has surpassed that of Beiqi, and it has surpassed Chang'an. The driving force behind it is the explosive growth of its GAC passenger cars. Within the six major groups, the gap in the development of independent brands is widening; the independent car companies outside the group army are also very different in differentiation. The rise of the black horses, the two brands of Chery and Jianghuai originally belonged to the “second echelonâ€. "Suddenly eclipsed." Autonomous vehicles that rely on SUVs for one-leg walking, such as Zotye, have seen a significant decline. In 2016, the top ten automakers will be the first to be kicked out in the competition. I believe that there will be an answer soon.
Independently change the market seat: GAC sales in the first half of the year exceeded Beiqi
For several major automobile groups, its joint venture brand has always been an absolute contributor to market sales and profits. For example, in the above-mentioned steam sales, less than 10% of its annual sales of 6 million vehicles comes from the contribution of independent brands. Therefore, when the Korean, French, and American Ford were "cold" this year, group soldiers including Beiqi and Changan will inevitably have "cold". According to Wilson's data, sales in three of the six major groups in the first half of the year fell year-on-year, with BAIC and Dongfeng down 23.2% and 13.1%, and Changan also down 8.3%. Correspondingly, Beijing Hyundai's main joint venture, Hyundai's main sales, fell 42.4% in the first half of the year, compared with only 301,000 in the first half. The sales volume of Dongfeng's joint venture brand Shenlong Automobile decreased by 48.5% in the first half of the year to only 148,000. Changan's Changan Ford sold a total of 359,000 units in the first half of the year, down 17% year-on-year.
The decline of the joint venture brand has changed the ranking of the six major group armies for many years. Among several major groups, GAC has always had a certain gap in the scale compared with the other five. However, the decline of competitors' joint venture brands has provided favorable external factors for their catch-up, and the rise of internal independent brands has accelerated the realization of this process. In the first half of the year, the sales volume of GAC exceeded 1.01 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%. Among them, the sales volume of GAC Chuanyu increased by nearly 60% year-on-year to more than 250,000 units. The accumulated sales volume in the first seven months was close to 290,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 52%.
In contrast, BAIC, in the context of the joint venture brand is not strong, the downturn of its own brand has also dragged down its overall market performance. In 2016, the sales volume of BAIC's own brands (including Suibao, Beijing and Weiwang) reached 457,000, but in the first half of this year. The cumulative sales volume of Beijing Auto was only 105,200 units, down 43.79% year-on-year. The fifth seat was successfully won by GAC, and the sales volume of the former was less than 200,000. Changan’s performance is also not optimistic. In July, Changan’s brand passenger cars sold 64,549 vehicles, down nearly 30% from the previous month.
In Peng Bo's view, the change in ranking is essentially a manifestation of the explosive power, endurance and adjustment of the car. He summarized the performance of the group's independent auto-steam and GAC as “rolling-type†growth. The ability of SAIC in the power system and the Internet of Vehicles and the ability of Guangzhou Automobile is not a day's work but a accumulation of years.
Under the background of the joint venture brand competition has been very hot and full, the performance and trend of the independent sector is considered to be the focus of competition in the next few groups. "Objectively speaking, the performance of the joint venture brand can not truly reflect the core competitiveness of a group, and the operation of the independent sector is the embodiment of strength." Peng Bo told the First Financial Reporter.
Similar to the recent FAW and Changan coaching, it also verified the intention from the upper level. Under the background that China has already re-linked to the world's largest auto market, how should the auto companies should accelerate the development of their own brands and become the key issues for the top leaders. If we say that in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" and even before, the six major group forces will compete more for the brand strength and market sales of the joint venture. In the "13th Five-Year Plan" and beyond, a group's sustainable Development capabilities and competitiveness will rely more on the competitiveness of independent brands in core technologies and forward-looking trends.
The six major automobile groups regard their own brands as the top priority in the development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. In the future planning, independent brands will become the driving force for the overall sales of the Group. In the planning of SAIC, the sales volume of its own brands will be raised to 1 million in 2020. Dongfeng's "13th Five-Year Plan" period of self-owned brand sales refers to 3 million vehicles. FAW plans to break through 2 million self-owned brands in 2020, during which 18 independent products will be launched. The sales targets of Changan and GAC's independent brands in 2020 are 2.3 million and 1 million respectively. Xu Heyi, chairman of BAIC, once said that BAIC strives to produce and sell 800,000 vehicles in 2020, including 200,000 new energy vehicles. Like GAC, BAIC's own brand will impact 500,000 units in its 2017 plan. But there are a few that can really do it, but I am afraid it is still difficult to answer.
SUV "done is difficult to rely on", the second and third line brands are seriously divided
Compared with the group army of "financial and crude", the differentiation of non-groups in the market's panning is more obvious. Geely, which has a good balance in the sedan and SUV markets, is still a well-deserved dark horse. In July, Geely's domestic sales totaled 90088 units, a year-on-year growth rate of 94%. From January to July this year, Geely's cumulative total sales volume was 621,700 units. It increased by 89% year-on-year. Beyond the Great Wall's 529,800 vehicles, the latter only increased by 2.04% in the first seven months of this year.
Xu Qian, director of AlixPartners, a global business consulting firm, believes that Geely's success is the most powerful commentary on the two-legged and balanced development of car companies. In his view, balance is the necessary development idea for all successful car companies in the world. To achieve a large amount in the global market, it must be fully developed in all market segments and fully blossomed.
In the past few years, Great Wall has been one of the representatives of sales and profits in its own brands. However, since last year, with the pressure of joint venture brands and the full force of independent SUVs, Great Wall’s market position has also been affected. "The Great Wall is also adjusting its own practices, such as launching new brands outside the SUV, not just wanting to set their own products in an inherent scope." Xu Qian told reporters.
In the past two years, some second- and third-line independent brands have indeed achieved rapid development, but the drawbacks of this model are gradually reflected. Jianghuai and Zotye are two companies with more obvious performance. Jianghuai has clearly stated that it has to abandon its investment in the sedan market, and is fully committed to the SUV. It has launched five SUVs. In 2016, the sales of Jianghuai passenger cars reached 370,000, but in the first seven months of this year, Jianghuai passengers. Car sales were only 127,400 units, down nearly 40% year-on-year, and only completed 30% of the annual target of 400,000 units. Among them, the SUV sector saw the most obvious decline, up 53.5% year-on-year. A number of small SUVs have slipped from the transcripts of last month's sales of 10,000 vehicles, and the monthly sales have dropped to more than 1,000 vehicles.
Last year's sales increased by over 50% year-on-year to 333,000 units. Zhongtai Auto, which has undergone a transition from a third-rate car company to the third camp, has been sluggish this year. In the first seven months, Zotye Motor sold a total of 127,000 new cars, down 25.78% year-on-year, and only achieved annual sales target of less than 30%. Among them, the cumulative sales of SUV models was only 93,600 units, a drop of 32%. The Zoe T600, which was hard to find or even increase in price, has once dropped to 3,000 units this month.
From the overall market point of view, the SUV is still “outstanding†in the first seven months, but the growth rate has dropped from 40%~50% in the past to around 15%. In the context of the market's low tide, “the rationality and criticality of consumers will be manifested. It is very obvious," Peng Bo believes. Therefore, it can be seen that the small SUV market is very squeezed. At the same time, consumers are willing to buy brands with relatively better quality and higher quality. The mixed situation in the market is changing. The "Matthew effect" of the strong Hengqiang is gradually reflected in the differentiation of independent brands.
According to Peng Bo, in this context, the endurance and adjustment of enterprises are particularly important. He believes that the principle of the automobile market is that the product is competitive, and the key to endurance is to maintain continuous competitiveness. Therefore, how to do product placement and product lifecycle management is especially important. For example, the above-mentioned Changan pressure comes from the problem of product life cycle management, and it is necessary to grasp the rhythm of core product renewal. And the remaining second and third-line brands, whether they can gain a foothold in this knockout, the test will be the rapid and flexible adjustment of the enterprise.
Independent joint ventures and short-term joints: What are the opportunities for overtaking?
In the car market, the independent brand is almost in a state of total collapse. In the field of SUV, according to industry analysts, with the joint exploration and adjustment of the joint venture, there is not much window left for independence. In the context of the autonomous and joint venture brands, how does the former win the market?
With the development of mainstream independent brands, in terms of product strength, independent brands have begun to have the opportunity to seize the joint venture market share. Since last year, the weakness of the Korean cars has been an example. All along, the Korean car has taken advantage of the cost-effectiveness and intensive cultivation of channels, firmly controlling the status of the mainstream automobile market, but with the rapid changes in the automobile consumer market, the explosive growth of mobile Internet demand, originally The Korean wave in the Chinese market seems to have touched the growing ceiling, the model update speed is too slow, and the localization of the product is weak, which makes the price-performance advantage of the Korean car facing severe challenges.
According to Lan Qingsong, vice president of SAIC Group, “the inflection point of homogenization or overtaking of products is very close to independent brands and joint ventures.†He believes that the competition between Chinese auto industry and joint ventures has been “strategic defenseâ€. To "strategic holdings" and then to "strategic offenses", at present, the two have entered the "strategic phase" stage. In terms of product performance, quality, durability and reliability, China's autonomous vehicles will also have the possibility of catching up with joint ventures.
Geely Automobile Group President and CEO An Conghui also said in an interview with the First Financial News that China's independent brands are forming a collective upward trend, and it is expected to capture market share from mainstream foreign brands through leapfrog competition.
Even so, in the traditional automotive field, it is not so easy to compete with the joint venture brand in all aspects. The experience and ability of joint venture brands accumulated over decades or even hundreds of years is not so easy to surpass.
The development of intelligent and Internet vehicles has provided new opportunities for independent brands. In an interview with reporters, Lan Qingsong believes that compared with foreign consumers, Chinese consumers are more demanding in terms of intelligence and the Internet, which in turn promotes innovation and experimentation.
SAIC’s Datong brand has previously tried to manufacture cars through C2B customization. The difference between the traditional car manufacturing and the “cars that consumers think consumers need†is that C2B’s model is to define cars directly from consumer terminals. Information feedback can be realized through the platform built by the enterprise, which helps the enterprise to locate the “products most needed by consumersâ€. DH, the first SUV model launched by C2B mode recently, received only 660,000 fans and 170 in the interactive pricing. The pricing results of tens of thousands of people, and these later became an important basis for the official pricing of the D90.
“In the past, it was difficult for companies to directly access consumer data and information.†In this way, Lan Qingsong said that not only can the consumer demand be more deeply understood, but the process and supply chain can be optimized. Although he also admits that the customized model will encounter multiple boundary challenges such as cost and time, for a new brand that does not have much burden, “two-way feedback†will be a rare asset.
Indeed, a brand must succeed in the market, and the time, ability to operate, and the ability to grasp customer needs are important. These seemingly well-known points are not so easy to grasp under the traditional automobile manufacturing mode, and with the popularity of the Internet, consumers and enterprises can realize all-round seamless docking through technology. It is indeed an opportunity for car companies to grasp market demand and trends.
Peng Bo also believes that new trends in the automotive sector, such as new energy and smart interconnection, have indeed provided opportunities for Chinese car companies, but whether they can achieve cornering overtaking or later, remains to be tested by the market.
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