Jiang Lei, executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, told the author on the 19th that under the guidance of huge market demand, China’s auto consumption in 2007 will continue to grow at a double-digit rate. It is estimated that the production and sales of automobiles will increase by 15% year-on-year in 2007 and exceed 8 million vehicles. The growth of cars will still be higher than the overall increase.
Industry experts believe that in 2007 China's auto market will show five characteristics.
First, automobile production and sales continue to maintain a relatively high growth rate. From the situation in 2006, the passenger car market has developed rapidly. The main driving factor is the increasing proportion of private car purchases. At present, China's passenger vehicle market has entered the stage where private demand is the dominant stage and it has become one of the concrete manifestations of the upgrading of the consumption structure. The domestic auto market will maintain rapid growth over a long period of time under the influence of private consumption.
Second, the industry is more competitive and the price war will continue to be endless. At present, the overall domestic automobile production capacity is greater than the demand. In order to compete for market share, various automobile manufacturers have continuously introduced new models and reduced selling prices. It is expected that competition in the auto market will become more intense in 2007. Since many new models launched in 2006 have yet to be digested, the pace of launching new models in 2007 may slow down.
Third, the domestic automobile consumption environment is relatively stable and there will be no major policies introduced. The road maintenance fees that have been levied in the new year have already begun, and it is unlikely that the automobile fuel tax that has been brewing for many years will be introduced. However, with the increasing requirements for tailpipe emission standards in some major cities, it will affect the sales of a number of non-compliance vehicles.
Fourth, the characteristics of individualized needs have become increasingly evident. The proportion of domestic private car consumption has increased from 58% in 2001 to around 80% now, and the proportion of private car consumption has risen sharply. Consumer demand has become more and more personalized. According to incomplete statistics, there are currently more than 150 models of nearly 50 passenger car brands in China. However, sales of more than 100,000 units per year for the single model are still relatively small, and the vast majority of model models sell less than 50,000 vehicles. More and more abundant models give consumers more choice opportunities, but the sales volume of single models is too low, which affects the economic scale of auto manufacturers.
Fifth, imported cars will still be dominated by high-end luxury cars. At present, many multinational automobile giants have started to produce luxury cars in China, but high-end luxury cars and some personalized cars still rely entirely on imports due to low demand. The imported auto market in 2007 will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend.
In 2006, China's auto production and sales exceeded 7.2 million units, an increase of more than 25% year-on-year.
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