In 2013, China's tire industry rose first. The situation at the beginning of the year was not optimistic. In the first half of the year, the sales of tires were not good, but the situation began to improve in the second half of the year The annual sales of tires, exports, profits and other indicators have maintained double-digit growth, the best level in three years. In 2014, the optimistic atmosphere in the tire industry has not faded. Most people in the industry remain optimistic about the trend of the tire market this year, but at the same time, they also believe that the fierce competition in the market will further intensify, and that caution is needed in optimism. Attention should be paid to production capacity and market demand. , rubber prices and other changes in the tire industry.
Demand does not "cold" production or maintain double-digit growth
China's tire production in 2013 witnessed double-digit growth. In 2014, the operating environment of the tire industry is still good both domestically and abroad, which will determine that the demand for tires will remain strong. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2013, the automobile production and sales respectively exceeded 20 million vehicles for the first time, which was obviously better than the previous two years. It is expected that the Chinese automobile industry will continue to grow at an annual rate of 8% to 12% in 2014. This state will continue to be considerable. A long period of time.
After the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the pace of urbanization was noticeably accelerated and people’s intention to purchase cars was significantly enhanced. With the implementation of road traffic law and governance overload, China's transportation index has obvious signs of recovery. These factors determine that China's domestic demand for tires will not be "cold," and forecast that it will grow at the same rate as the automotive industry, with growth rates of around 10%.
In foreign markets, the tire environment is also good. The U.S. economy is recovering, the auto industry is recovering significantly, and tire demand has increased significantly. According to the latest report from the Rubber Manufacturers Association of the United States, the increase in shipments in 2014 is expected to include unemployment rate, improvement in the real estate industry, increase in car sales, increase in driving mileage, and other macroeconomic factors. In 2014, only the demand for replacement tires for passenger cars was reported. It is expected to increase 2 million units. The European economy is gradually emerging from the impact of the European debt crisis. The comprehensive purchasing managers' index has reached a record high, and demand for automobiles and tires has recovered.
The domestic and export markets have grown in demand, predicting that China’s tire production in 2014 is expected to continue to maintain double-digit growth, with the semi-steel tire's growth rate estimated to be around 12%, and all-steel tire growth at around 10%. After more than a year of silence, engineering tires will recover, and the estimated growth rate will reach about 10%.
Price downward sales are expected to turn positive
In 2013, China's tire sales showed a slight negative growth, mainly due to the fact that the decrease in tire prices was greater than the increase in output. China's tires, including truck and car tire price indices, have both fallen for more than two years, and are expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2014, but the downward trend will slow down and may stabilize in the second half of the year.
At present, the price of rubber is around 18,000 yuan/ton, and the decline rate is much lower than the price of tires, so there is still a certain amount of decline in tires. The decline in tire prices generally lags behind the decline in rubber prices. From a time point of view, the decline in tyres has to lag at least half a year. However, the rubber price is basically the cost price of rubber. The space for decline is very limited, and the probability that rubber prices will fluctuate after a period of time is relatively high. This predicts that the price of tires does not have much room for growth, and is estimated to be about 5%. The time is relatively longer, and it is estimated that it will be possible to stabilize or increase after the third quarter.
Tire sales are the product of sales volume and price. As the price decrease offsets the increase in sales of some tires, and the decrease in tire prices is smaller than the increase in tire sales, the total tire sales in China will change from negative to positive, but the rate will be below 5%. .
With regard to export prices, due to the boost in overseas tire demand, prices will be relatively stable or slightly lower. Due to the increase in export volume, it is expected that the increase in export delivery value may reach 8% to 10%.
Profit decline earnings will remain at higher levels
In 2013, the profitability of the tire industry was relatively good, but the profit growth rate showed a declining trend. The main reason was that there was a difference between the decrease in the price of tire raw rubber rubber and the decrease in tire prices. This difference still exists in 2014, which determines that the overall profitability of the industry will remain at a relatively high level.
However, as tire prices continue to fall, and rubber prices stabilize or oscillate, this difference will show a narrowing trend, which will lead to a drop in tire profitability. However, the increased economies of scale of tire companies and the reduction of inventories will have a positive effect on profitability.
It is expected that the tire industry in China will continue to be a bumper year in 2014. The loss-making enterprises will have only individual biased tire companies, and the number of loss-making enterprises will fall to the lowest level in ten years. The overall profit growth rate of the industry will drop to less than 20%, and the profitability of tires will fall below 4%. For the type of tires, the highest profit rate is for engineering tyres, followed by all-steel tyres, and the lowest for semi-steel tyres.
Strong investment risks continue to increase
In 2013, there was a small “blowout†in China’s tire investment. The preliminary statistics of China’s annual production capacity of new steel tires totaled 15 million, and semi-steel tire production capacity was 100 million.
The tire investment enthusiasm of 2014 remains unabated. There are more than 10 tire projects near Linyi, Shandong, and the scale is relatively large. Once these projects are completed, Linyi will become the second “Dawangzhuang†in the tire industry. Tire investment outside of Shandong is also in full swing. Almost every old tire factory has an expansion or new project plan.
It is expected that in 2014 China will continue to add 15 million pieces of all-steel tires and 100 million pieces of semi-steel tires. By the end of this year, the total production capacity of all steel tires in China will reach 165 million, and the annual production capacity of semi-steel tires will exceed 600 million. The structural surplus in the tire industry in China will become even more pronounced.
As a result, the operating rate of the tire industry in the whole year will further bottom out, and it is estimated that it will be reduced from about 80% last year to about 75% or lower, and it will enter the industry with serious excess.
However, this has caused the attention of relevant departments and industries. Shandong Province adopted the "Implementation Opinions on Resolving the Contradiction of Serious Overcapacity" in principle on January 10th. It no longer approves and records new capacity projects in industries with serious overcapacity, including tires. This will be a bottleneck for this national investment in tire investment in Shandong, but the specific impact estimates will only appear after three quarters.
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