Domestic heavy-duty transmission industry Steep raw wave car plant accelerated invasion

The heavy-duty transmission market has seen a significant surge in recent months. In mid-to-late November, news emerged that Big Tooth had transitioned into the China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, marking a major shift. Then, in early December, reports surfaced that the Dongfeng 14-speed heavy-duty transmission had officially rolled off the production line. Meanwhile, FAW Liberation is gradually expanding the use of the Eaton FS10209 transmission across its J6 and J5 heavy truck platforms. These developments signal a potential transformation in the domestic heavy-duty transmission landscape, with clearer paths emerging for independent transmission companies in terms of future prospects and business models. **Host Plants Speed Up Self-Produced Transmission Development** On December 1, the 14-speed heavy-duty transmission from the gearbox division under Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. officially launched. In fact, the project for Dongfeng’s heavy-duty truck transmissions began over two years ago. At the time, the project leader mentioned that they initially planned to focus on a more basic Chinese-cabinet transmission, aiming to eventually develop up to 9th gear and beyond for heavy trucks. Just half a month earlier, on November 18, Shanxi Dadai, once the largest medium and heavy-duty transmission company in China, was officially integrated into China National Heavy Duty Truck through an equity transfer, becoming one of the key bases for self-produced transmissions under SINOTRUK. According to Zhang Qing, vice general manager of Dagou Group, independent transmission companies have struggled to gain competitive advantages, which has contributed to their shrinking market share. Dongfeng and CNHTC are accelerating their own transmission production, and FAW Group, known for its system capabilities, is not far behind. Although the joint venture between FAW and Eaton has ceased, the collaboration on the FS10209 9- and 10-speed transmission is still ongoing, primarily used in the J6 heavy-duty trucks. As this transmission matures and vehicle performance improves, it is also being adapted for the J5 platform, enabling resource sharing. Reports suggest that FAW is currently planning the development and production of 12-speed and 16-speed transmissions, with FAW itself as the main developer. Currently, Shaanxi Fast holds over 85% of the domestic heavy-duty transmission market, sitting at the top of the industry "pyramid." Other brands like Big Tooth and Carious Teeth occupy the remaining share. As major automakers begin producing their own transmissions, the traditional transmission structure is beginning to weaken, and the shift between old and new market patterns is accelerating. **Independent Transmission Plants Face Unprecedented Pressure** “With the host plants accelerating their own production, and the original independent transmission brands being absorbed into larger vehicle groups, the pressure on existing independent transmission companies has increased dramatically,” said an industry insider. On one hand, the dominance of Shaanxi Fast may soon be challenged, leading to a gradual decline in market share. The extent of this drop will depend on how quickly competitors like Dongfeng and CNHTC can mature and apply their products. In fact, Shaanxi Fast has already anticipated this shift and has been developing products such as the 6-block and 8-block synchronizer transmissions, trying to expand into the passenger car market. On the other hand, “independent transmission companies could face survival challenges,” the insider added. Some companies have focused on the export market for heavy trucks, hoping to boost domestic demand through export orders. However, this path remains difficult to scale. Big Tooth, after years of operation, was transferred to CNHTC for free. In the long run, independent transmission companies may need to form strategic partnerships with major truck manufacturers in terms of R&D and marketing to sustain growth and maintain their position in the industry—provided they are technologically advanced or have unique features. To ensure supply chain stability and higher profitability, large commercial vehicle groups are increasingly opting to produce key components themselves, which will have a ripple effect across the industry. In the next three to five years, the heavy-duty transmission market may see a shift toward a "one super three" structure, with Shaanxi Fast, Diesel, Dongfeng, and Liberation dominating. The future of independent brands remains uncertain.

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